Saturday, October 31, 2009

My Take on CFB Night Games on ABC/ESPN2

(5) USC vs. (10) Oregon

The reign of the USC Trojans in the Pac-10 will be on the line today. Two years ago, behind Dennis Dixon, they beat USC, but he got injured and they never recovered. USC hasn't won in Oregon for a few years either against Oregon St. or Oregon. It's a tough place to play.

Oregon needs this win for a signature victory. They played Boise St. on national tv and got embarassed by BSU and LeGarrette Blount's punch. They beat Utah then-ranked #18 and Cal then-ranked #6. It was the Utes only loss, while Cal has fallen down since that loss. So this game will be big for them and their BCS aspiration.

Oregon's key to victory is QB Jeremiah Masoli. He needs to run the spread offense well and pass well to win. Contrary to many analyst's comments, USC hasn't struggled against the spread offense, like in years past. Their defense has more discipline this year. They lost to Washington, but it was due to turnovers and a backup qb. The last two weeks, two traditional pass qbs have had a field day in the 4th quarter nearly beating USC both times, but they held on to victory.

USC must establish the run early, setting up the pass. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley must avoid interceptions and deal with the crowd at Autzen Stadium. Many great SC qb's have gone there and lost in recent years. USC has a great record againstg ranked teams on the road and must be ready for the most difficult game of the year. After this, the schedule is a little bit easier than the first nine games, including six games on the road.

(3) Texas vs. (14) Oklahoma St.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have waited for this game for more than a year after scaring the Texas Longhorns last year in Austin. OSU has put up big numbers on offense, but with Dez Bryant, who is suspended indefintely due to contact with Deoin Sancers, it's going to be tough.

Oklahome State hasn't beaten Texas since 1997, but the last two years the games have been close. Two years in Stillwater, Oklahoma State was up by 21 points, but Colt McCoy engineered a great comeback and they won 38-35. Last year, two big defensive stands won the game for the Cowboys in Austin preserved a 28-24 victory.

The key to this game is the Qb Zac Robinson vs the UT defense. The Longhorn defense has been great this year and leading the way all season with turnovers and stingy defense. They are playing a great scheme and will have to do the same tonight to beat Oklahoma St. I believe a great defense always beats a good offense.

The Texas offense finally had a break out game last week against Missouri, winning 41-7. They have struggled most of the year as McCoy has thrown 8 interceptions. Mind you, they beat up on Missouri, who was overmatched and couldn't compete with the Longhorns. The offense will have to get going early to win this game instead of relying on the defense and special teams.

Oklahoma St. really hasn't beaten anybody this year. The only game that mattered with a top 25 team, Houston, and they lost at home. UT needs a victory, like this, over a top 25 team to help them in the BCS Standings and bring them closer to the Alabama and Florida. At this point, if Texas doesn't win out with their schedule and make the national championship, it will be embarassing after last year's debacle.

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